Podcast: The CLO Investor, Episode 1

The CLO Investor Podcast, Episode 1

Hi, I’m Shiloh Bates and welcome to the CLO investor podcast. CLO stands for Collateralized Loan Obligations, which are securities backed by pools of leveraged loans. During this podcast series I’ll cover a CLO 101, relevant topics in the CLO industry and interview key market players. I’ll put a heavy emphasis on CLO equity and BB rated securities as those are the securities I find most interesting.

By way of background, I’m the Chief Investment Officer of Flat Rock Global. I’ve spent two decades in the CLO market, working for CLO managers, and investing in CLO securities. And in 2023 I wrote a book on CLO investing. As CLOs are gaining in popularity, I believe investment professionals of all varieties will benefit from understanding this unique market.

Now, let’s get started.

Our first episode is CLO 101. But first off, let’s discuss why the CLO market is important today.

When I started my career, there were around $6 billion in CLO assets under management and a handful of CLO managers. Today there are over one trillion in CLO assets under management and over one hundred different CLO managers.

CLOs, in my opinion, can offer attractive risk adjusted returns for numerous investors with different risk and return profiles. CLOs issue securities rated AAA and sell them to banks and insurance companies, while investors who can handle more risk and might be targeting double-digit returns invest in CLO BB Notes and CLO Equity.

CLO securities are floating rate so there is almost no interest rate duration. The income from CLO securities varies based on the Secured Overnight Funding Rate or SOFR, which is tied closely to the Fed Funds rate. In recent years CLO investors have benefitted from Federal Reserve Interest Rate increases.

I don’t think any MBA programs offer courses in CLOs, but I think they should. The CLO market sits at the intersection of leveraged buyouts, high yield bonds, leveraged loans, credit analysis and securitization.

I like to say that CLOs are a little complicated but in a fun way. And I believe investors who take the time to understand them can be rewarded.

Lots of people enjoyed the movie, The Big Short, and I’ve read the book a few times. In fact, Michael Lewis is one of my favorite authors. But that movie is about CDOs not CLOs. The nomenclature is similar, but the results for investors were not. Both CLOs and CDOs use securitization, which takes a pool of assets and repackages them into other securities. Securitization is a powerful tool, but the quality of the underlying assets is key. CLOs own highly diversified pools of senior secured loans to large US businesses. CDOs from the financial crisis often owned portfolios of subprime mortgages of dubious credit quality. CDOs, as a result, saw defaults on securities rated initially AAA. For CLO equity, which takes the most economic risk, those securities ended with realized IRRs in the high 20% area. If they make a movie about CLOs, I believe it would have a happy ending.

In 2003, there were $16BN of new CLOs created. Twenty years later, in 2023 there were $116BN. During the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis CLO, issuance dried up. Excluding this time period, CLO issuance has been on a two decade upswing. The two primary drivers, in my opinion, are investors seeking exposure to actively managed portfolios of first lien loans combined with the performance of CLO securities over extended periods of time.

Let’s get into the CLO structure. The easiest way to think about a CLO is that it’s a simplified bank in one business line, commercial lending. The typical CLO has approximately $500M of assets. The assets are first lien loans that float based on SOFR. The loans are generally secured by all the assets of the company, both physical and intangible. Assets pledged to the lender would usually include cash, accounts receivable, inventory, physical plant, real estate, and any other assets. If a loan were to go bankrupt, the first lien lenders are the first in line for any recovery. These loans are created in leveraged buyouts. Imagine that a private equity firm is buying a company. They might put up half the purchase price in equity. The remainder could be a first lien term loan. The private equity firm wants to lever its investment, because it believes the businesses its acquiring will grow revenue and cash flow over time. In a typical CLO there might be 200 plus of these types of loans. In fact, a requirement to form a CLO is a highly diversified loan portfolio.

The loans in a CLO are actively managed and there are over 100 CLO management firms in the market. Realistically, we have more CLO managers than we could possibly need. The largest publicly traded alternative asset managers all have large CLO management teams. They earn 40 to 50 basis points annually to pick the initial loans that go into the CLO and keep the CLO fully invested during its reinvestment period. The CLO manager’s job is also to keep the CLO passing its many tests.

Many of the leveraged loans that can be found in CLOs were issued by businesses that may be familiar to you. Asurion, for example, is the company that does insurance contracts for Apple and Samsung phones. Cablevision, Virgin Media, and McAfee are a few more familiar names. My gym in New York, Equinox, has a term loan owned by many CLOs and they have great yoga classes too. While these are large companies, you aren’t going to find many of these companies in the S&P 500. Companies like Apple and Google are rated investment grade and borrow at rates too low to be included in a CLO. The borrowers in CLOs are ”speculative grade” with an average rating of single B or B2 from Standard and Poor’s or Moody’s. Fortunately, these loans default rarely, and when they do default, recoveries are usually high. The attraction of lending to speculative grade companies is they pay attractive interest rates to the lender, in this case the CLO. It’s important to note that the pool of loans in a CLO is not random; the borrowers in a CLO are, for the most part, owned by sophisticated private equity firms that did lots of due diligence on the borrower before acquiring it. And the credit quality of the loan is acceptable to the CLO’s manager.

Earlier I mentioned that a CLO might have $500 million of assets. To finance itself, a number of securities will be issued including ones rated AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB and Equity. Of the seven securities, three will be the most important for this podcast. The AAA is critical because it makes up 65% of the CLO’s financing and provides the CLO’s most favorable funding cost. The CLO BB is usually the junior most CLO debt tranche and therefore offers the highest projected CLO debt security return. The CLO equity receives the quarterly profitability of the CLO but takes the first loss risk on any of the CLO loans. CLO equity investors target mid to high teen returns net of expected loan defaults. Similar to my bank analogy, CLO equity returns are generated because the CLO’s assets earn a higher interest rate than the CLO’s financing cost. The result is distributions to the CLO equity are made quarterly.

The beginning of the CLO is often a CLO warehouse, which is used to acquire loans prior to the formation of the CLO. When the CLO begins its life, all of the CLO debt securities that were issued start accruing their interest expense. From the CLO equity investor’s perspective, it’s best to start a CLO with minimum cash, which would be a drag on returns. Once a majority of the CLO’s loans have been purchased in a warehouse, the CLO’s arranger, which are some of the largest US investment banks, find buyers for the CLO’s securities. An indenture is negotiated that details the rules the CLO will follow. The CLO’s reinvestment period usually runs five years. During that time, loans are frequently repaying at par, and the CLO manager is buying new loans with the proceeds. After the reinvestment period ends, when loans repay at par, new loans are not purchased. The cash proceeds are used to repay the AAA CLO debt until it is fully retired. Then proceeds will go to the AA, etc. As the CLO’s highest rated debt repays, so goes the CLO’s lowest cost of capital. From the CLO equity investor’s perspective, as the CLO delevers, the profitability of the CLO is reduced. At some point the CLO’s equity investors will decide the CLO should be called. Calling a CLO means selling all the CLO’s loans and repaying the CLO’s debt securities. After that the remining proceeds are distributed to the CLO equity.

The debt the CLO issues usually has a two-year non-call period on it. That means the rate on the AAA for example cannot be changed. However, after the non-call period, the CLO equity may attempt to refinance the CLO’s debt at lower costs and or extend the reinvestment period of the CLO, this is called a reset. Both of these transactions can be accretive for the CLO equity investor. I’ll do a future podcast on this subject as refinancings, and resets are prevalent in the market today.

A key concept in CLO investing is the value of the self-healing mechanism. In periods of economic stress, defaults on loans pick up. This is negative for CLO equity investors and the other debt investors in the CLO. However, the CLO’s assets, its leveraged loans, are constantly repaying at par. And during the CLO’s reinvestment period, those par proceeds are used to buy new loans. If defaults on the CLO’s loans are picking up, it’s likely that many leveraged loans will be trading at discounts to par value. Purchasing these discounted loans, if they end up paying off at par, provide loan gains that can be a valuable offset to any uptick in loan losses. This is the CLO self-healing mechanism, and it’s powerful.

Why would someone invest in CLO Equity? It provides exposures to actively managed pools of senior secured loans, but with attractive long-term financing attached. CLO equity pays high current income, today in the mid-to-high-teens area.¹

Many Investors get exposure to leveraged loans using loan funds or BDCs. In these structures investors take a loss whenever a loan defaults. Usually, I think this is a good risk to take. However, investors in CLOs generally budget for a loan loss reserve using a 2% default rate. If the default rate ends up below this number, it’s likely the CLO equity can outperform the buyer’s base case returns projections. CLO equity projected returns are quoted net of loan losses.

CLO equity has low correlation to other asset classes like high yield bonds or the S&P 500. That means investors can potentially increase overall returns and lower the overall risk of client’s portfolios by including CLO equity. Finally, one of the reasons I’ve gravitated to CLO equity as an asset class is that it’s an inefficient market, and an experienced investor can outperform peers.

For CLOs issued between 2002 and 2019, the average CLO equity tranche returned 21% – not too shabby. ²

CLO BBs, on the other hand, which take less risk, returned 9.5% since 2012, which isn’t bad considering how low interest rates were during much of the time period.³ Again, CLO BBs and most of the other CLO’s financing is floating rate.

Now why would someone buy a CLO AAA? Well, none have ever defaulted, so that’s nice. Banks and insurance companies buy them to make a return on a security that requires little regulatory capital, given its high rating. CLO AAAs are, of course, floating rate, and the performance was in sharp contrast to the investment grade bonds that traded down substantially when interest rates increased 2022. I’ve actually never bought a AAA rated CLO Note and probably never will. BBB is the most senior note I’ve owned. The reason is that the CLO’s junior-most tranche, the BB Note, default rarely but pay much higher returns that the AAA. The 30-year default rate on CLO BBs is around 20bps per year, so defaults on these securities are exceedingly rare.⁴

Many financial firms have gotten into trouble because their assets are of longer duration than their liabilities. The banking crisis of the spring 2023 is one prescient example. If the assets are illiquid and the financing market isn’t open when liabilities come due, it can be a big problem. CLOs are structured with financing longer than the expected life of all the CLO’s leveraged loans. There should never be a time when a CLO is a forced seller of assets in a depressed market.

CLOs have historically been an asset only available to large institutional investors. Given what I believe are the attractive risk/return characteristics of CLOs and CLO equity and BB Notes in particular, I believe retail investors will increasingly want access to the asset class. And recent years have seen the launch of CLO focused closed-end funds, interval funds and exchange-traded funds or ETFs. The key question for investors is what CLO security best fits their targeted return and risk profile.

So, that is your CLO 101 in a nutshell. Throughout the podcast series I’m going to delve deep into the concepts I discussed here. And in the interim, there are also numerous educational resources that can be found on the Flat Rock Global website. Until next time, thanks for listening.

The content here is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as legal, business, tax or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security. This podcast is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any Flat Rock Global Fund.

Definitions Section:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities. 

Leveraged Buyout is the acquisition of a company using debt as an important funding source.

High Yield Bonds are debt investments, usually unsecured and fixed rate, that are rated below investment grade.

Leveraged Loans are corporate loans to companies that are not rated investment grade.

Collateralized Debt Obligation – A collateralized debt obligation is a structured finance product that is backed by a pool of assets other than leveraged loans.

Credit Analysis is the process of evaluating the creditworthiness of a borrower.

Securitization divides cash flows amongst different investors in a pool of assets.

Delever is the process by which an asset becomes financed more with equity and less with debt.

Spread is the percentage difference in current yields of various classes of fixed-income securities versus treasury bonds or another benchmark bond measure.

Yield is income returned on investment such as the interest received from holding a security. The yield is usually expressed as an annual percentage rate based on the investment’s cost, current market value, or face value.

General Disclaimer Section:

References to interest rate moves are based on Bloomberg data. The credit quality of fixed-income securities and a portfolio is assigned by a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch) as an indication of an issuer’s creditworthiness. Ratings range from AAA (highest) to D (lowest). Bonds rated BBB or above are considered investment grade. Credit ratings BB and below are lower-rated securities also known as junk bonds.

Any mentions of specific companies are for reference purposes only and are not meant to describe the investment merits of, or potential or actual portfolio changes related to, securities of those companies.

Unless otherwise noted, all discussions are based on U.S. markets and US monetary and fiscal policies.

Market forecasts and projections are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. Projections should not be considered a guarantee. The views and opinions expressed by the Flat Rock Global speaker are those of the speaker as of the date of the broadcast and do not necessarily represent the views of the firm as a whole. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and Flat Rock Global disclaims any responsibility to update such views. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice. It is not a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or to adopt any investment strategy. Neither Flat Rock Global, nor the Flat Rock Global speaker, can be responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. None of the information provided should be regarded as a suggestion to engage in, or refrain from, any investment-related course of action as neither Flat Rock Global, nor its affiliates, are undertaking to provide impartial investment advice, act as an impartial adviser, or give advice in a fiduciary capacity. This broadcast is copyright 2024 of Flat Rock Global LLC (all rights reserved). This recording may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or in any form, without the permission of Flat Rock Global. Additional information about this podcast along with an edited transcript may be obtained by visiting FlatRockGlobal.com

Source:

1. Flat Rock Global Market Analytics
2. Nomura CLO Research
3. Palmer Square BB Index
4. Standard and Poor’s